A monthly look at the 988 active Polymarket traders on the Shadower leaderboard, filtered for wallets you could actually copy: real directional trading, enough resolved markets to judge, no arbitrage bots. Data as of November 8, 2026.
84% of traders who win 70% or more are in profit, against 42% of the 299 who lose more than half their resolved markets. So win rate matters, just less than it looks. The under-50% group enters at a median 43¢ a share against 50¢ for everyone, so each win pays more. And 16% of the 120 traders who win 70% or more are losing money: they pay a median 57¢ against 51¢ for the profitable ones. Across all traders the correlation between win rate and ROI is only 0.23.
81% of the traders in this report bet mainly on sports. Politics, world events and crypto each account for a few percent.
Elo here measures how often a trader's entries beat the price they paid, ignoring bet size. The median trader scores 49 out of 100, close to a coin flip. Only 90 traders (9%) score 71 or higher.
Bets of $10,000 or more are 0.7% of all bets placed by these traders. Most land between $11 and $1,000, which is why copying them works with a small bankroll.
| Category | Traders | Median win rate | Median ROI | In profit |
| Sports | 805 | 56% | +1.2% | 57% |
| Crypto | 62 | 52% | -0.5% | 48% |
| Politics | 44 | 54% | +4.2% | 59% |
| World | 35 | 51% | +10.4% | 77% |
| Other | 34 | 53% | +3.5% | 76% |
Categories with fewer than 30 traders are left out. Per-market leaderboards: sports · politics · crypto.
| # | Trader | Elo | Win rate | ROI | Realized P&L | Market | |
| 1 | 0xd5bf…f0cc | 100 | 72% | +35% | +$28,506 | Sports | Copy |
| 2 | blbblb | 100 | 83% | +37% | +$8,551 | Sports | Copy |
| 3 | spffast | 100 | 80% | +46% | +$10,430 | Sports | Copy |
| 4 | polika72 | 100 | 82% | +35% | +$13,161 | Sports | Copy |
| 5 | macs.Macsnyi90 | 100 | 78% | +22% | +$19,607 | Sports | Copy |
| 6 | foxchaser | 100 | 79% | +24% | +$24,261 | Sports | Copy |
| 7 | jack.jr | 100 | 80% | +23% | +$28,718 | Sports | Copy |
| 8 | matmorfo | 100 | 80% | +21% | +$20,955 | Sports | Copy |
| 9 | dekadurabolin | 100 | 79% | +20% | +$19,217 | Sports | Copy |
| 10 | sntolo | 100 | 78% | +18% | +$16,853 | Sports | Copy |
Want to copy any of these traders automatically? Try it on a $10,000 demo balance first.
Start for free →A monthly snapshot of the 988 active, copyable Polymarket traders on the Shadower leaderboard: how win rate relates to profit, which markets they trade, how big they bet and who ranks highest by skill.
Not reliably. In November 2026, 16% of traders with a 70%+ win rate were losing money, while 42% of traders under 50% were profitable. Check ROI and Elo as well.
By Elo, a 1–100 rating of how often a trader's entries beat the market price, with ties broken by Shadower's overall score. Bet size and lucky one-off wins do not move it.