Forecasting Elo of 49/100 — measures how accurately Orenzweig predicts Polymarket outcomes (correct longshots score higher, bet size ignored). Higher is better; 71+ is a strong forecaster.
| Forecasting Elo (skill) | 49 / 100 |
| Total trades | 224 |
| Wins / Closed markets | 68 / 157 |
| ROI (last 30 days) | +193.2% |
| Volume | $68,139 |
| Late bets (>85¢) | 16.5% |
| Active for | 10.4 months |
| $1–10 | 2 bets/mo |
| $11–100 | 3 bets/mo |
| $101–1K | 4 bets/mo |
| $1K–10K | 1 bets/mo |
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